MBA Again Adjusts Up Forecast for Refi Volume
Articles by: Richey May, Sep 15, 2016
For the second straight month, the MBA has adjusted up their industry forecast for mortgage refinance volume. The September forecast estimates refinance volume during Q4-2015 to total $194 billion, which is a 13% increase over the August forecast and a 39% increase over the July forecast. Refinance volume during 2017 is projected to total $455 billion, which is an increase of 5% over the August forecast and an increase of 20% over the July forecast.
The consensus in the industry continues to be that rates will eventually go up and refinances will begin to disappear, however that storyline seems to be on hold for at least Q4-2016 and Q1-2017. Refinances are expected to make up 47% and 44% respectively before they take a nose dive in the second quarter of 2017. Check out Richey May’s interactive dashboard for the MBA’s mortgage finance forecast on our data analytics webpage. https://www.richeymay.com/industries/mortgage-banking/data-analytics-and-benchmarking/
The below graph highlights how the MBA has changed their forecast over the past three months to be more optimistic on refinance volume.